Anyone for a rosy take on what's gonna happen this year? Below is the good news half of a pretty good article I read in Business Day today. The bits on Hillary Clinton and Thabooo Muh-beki/JayZ are funny.
Oh ja, and FRIENDS, Happy New Year!
"An optimistic scenario would run something like this: Iraq continues to be mired in conflict but there is no regional war. President George Bush does a “Richard Nixon” and visits Tehran shortly after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is ousted in the summer of 2007. Iran urges moderation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Its nuclear programme is played down; no more threats to Israel’s existence are made.
Syria does not join the Iran-US détente but closes its border to traffic of Iraqi insurgents. Iran and Syria also rein in some of Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon. The US also puts pressure on Israel to free more of the funds owed to the Palestinian Authority and stop attacking Gaza.
Hamas and the Fatah faction sign a binding cease-fire. Rocket attacks on Israel stop. Osama bin Laden dies in a Pakistani clinic.
Robert Mugabe dies in his multi-bedroomed mansion, which the Chinese helped to tile. Beijing offers to build a Mao-style mausoleum for the Zimbabwean hero but Zanu (PF) accepts Chinese food vouchers instead.
The new United Nations (UN) Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, visits North Korea. President Kim Jong-il offers to halt his nuclear weapons programme in exchange for direct talks with Washington and economic inducements.
US Vice-President Dick Cheney retires on health grounds; John McCain succeeds him. Hillary Clinton is pushed out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination over an affair with an intern.
Borat is made an honorary citizen of Kazakhstan; he pays a triumphal visit to the capital, Astana.
In Britain, the ailing queen abdicates but jumps a generation to hand over the throne to Prince William. The Scottish nationalists win the parliamentary elections and promise independence within three years. In France, Ségolène Royal becomes the first female president.
A big breakthrough in battery technology prompts some of the oil majors to support enhanced investment in electric cars. The US administration starts to warm to the Kyoto protocols. Many western states accelerate their civil nuclear programmes.
US scientists claim that regular signals from deep space may be interpreted by year-end, establishing extra-terrestrial contact. Eventually it’s discovered that the sounds were in fact the last few neo- conservatives trying to contact earth from the alien planet on which they dwell.
The new year will contain many “unknown unknowns” but Iraq is likely to remain the central issue of western concern. This year could be the year of real drawdown or regional war — that may depend more upon the mood of Iraqis and regional players as much as on decisions made in Washington and London.
It could be a rough ride but since the first days of the new year are inclined to hope, it might be worth erring on the side of optimism. The politics of oil — the origins of most fighting in the Middle East — may well slowly give way to the politics of global warming. As ever, California leads. Look out for Arnold Schwarzenegger: he may not be allowed the White House but can still make his mark on Capitol Hill.
In SA, crime could suddenly drop, President Thabo Mbeki may become a teetotaler and Jacob Zuma could join a monastery — and Somalia manages to freely elect a functioning government.
Surely a bit of mindless optimism is allowed at the start of the year?"
‖Dr Moorcraft is the director of the Centre for Foreign Policy Analysis, London.
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