Time for another update on SA's deepening political troubles. This is after all my favourite thing, ever. Jokes. Porn is, but I can't say that when I'm trying to sound intelligent.
As you all should know, the ANC's national conference takes place in December this year, in Polokwane. It is here they they erect the new president of the party. Because in SA the head of state and head of government are rolled into one big, hairy shlong, and because we have only a general erection (and not a presidential erection), whomever leads the ANC will surely be our next state president, after the ANC wins by landslide the general erections in 2009.
Yet things are not so simple. Mbeki can and will run for a third term as party president. If he wins, and his chances are not insubstantial, this implies that one of two things must happen, both unprecedented, neither hot like greg's mom. One, the country, sorry limpdick parliament, agrees to amend the most holy and sacred part of our constitution, allowing Mbeki to have a third go at fucking our country up the arse (well at least the social bits - the economy's doing rather well, in fact better than EVER before, in ALL of history, under our washington consensus vibe). Or two, the ANC figures out how to deal with having one guy running the party and another running the state. I honestly cannot decide which is worse. Holiday in Kabul, or nursing job at Frere Hospital? What a CHOICE!
Door number one turfs us officially onto the top of the slippery slope to oblivion, african style. Door number 2 beats out of us what little tolerance we have left for psycho-politics by forcing us to live with a megalomaniacal party leader utterly unwilling to just let the fuck go, plotting and undermining whomever is trying to run the state. Worse, no-one yet seems to have a clue how, if Mbeki is still ANC president come 2009, the ANC will be able to find another douchebag to take over the state presidency without tearing itself, and the entire fabric of our democracy, asunder. Indeed just trying to erect a new party leader is already doing that. Like Oom always says, 'n vis VERROT van die KOP af.
The proverbial third way is of course also the most likely: Zuma wins the ANC erection in December, and assumes the state thrown, in the new presidential palace built with Chinese money, in 2009. Everyone is now saying it's his to lose (and by everyone I mean the serious analyst guys who write in the koerants, not kunty du plessis in the car mechanic shop what still haat daai vokkin aapies).
I still have my doubts. Tribalism remains the most hardcore form of 'racism' in this country. I'm struggling to see how the ANC bigwigs (and there are lots we never really hear about or know anything about), who are all isiXhosa, will let some zulu fuck run THEIR liberation organisation and THEIR country. Yes Luthuli was a Zulu, but that's ancient history. Back then there was a common enemy.
But, I also struggle to see how they will successfully manipulate the vote. Even chunks of the Eastern Cape branches now seem to prefer Zuma (if you believe polls in this country).
And the sad fact remains that even if there is some serious alternative to a run-off between Mbeki and Zuma... well there just isn't, klaar. That's a sad fact indeed. There's only 2 months left for chrissakes. Only madiba would be able to campaign not at all, get nominated at the last minute, and win. And Tokyo has campaigned, but like, please.
The final hot poker applied to your ball sack? Just in case you weren't feeling impotent already? The ANC's just finished it's membership audit - they need to do this prior to every national conference to figure out who has voting rights and who doesn't. Only paid-up members get to vote in December (you should have a healthy sense of foreboding by now). They've managed to scratch together a grand total of 650,000-odd members. That's right, less than 2% of this country's population will determine its medium-term future! Still think voting in 2009 will be worthwhile?
Think about THAT mud monkeys!
I do apologise for the crude language - I have been with an australian and a kiwi for 3 days now. I do love their forthrightness. But a touch crude, indeed.
Disclaimer: no matter what happens, the sun still shines in mzansi, and the country is still totally rad. I am not a white pessimist. I am helluva concerned about things though.